Housing's downturn to linger, U. expert says.
By Paul Beebe
The Salt Lake Tribune
Salt Lake Tribune
Updated:02/02/2009 10:28:12 PM MST
Real estate transactions along the Wasatch Front this year will be little changed from 2008, when the lending crisis
slammed the economy and threw it into recession.
"We are going to slog along, and I hope we are establishing a trough of housing both for new starts, as well as the
existing home sales market," James Wood, director of the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business
Research, said Monday.
That was the best Woods could say to about 700 agents eating breakfast at the Salt Lake Board of Realtors' annual
economic forecast in Salt Lake City.
More sobering, when the upturn begins in 2010, agents -- as well people who buy, sell, build and service homes --
better not expect new construction and existing home sales to return to their 2005 peaks for a long time, Wood said.
"It might be a generation before we reach those levels again."
Ditto for the rapid escalation of home prices during the "golden age" of Utah real estate, which came to a screeching
halt last September, Wood said.
"That will probably be a little while before we see that again, another generation. That's how these things typically
run."
Wood peppered his outlook with reminders of how much the recession has hurt the state. In October 2007, Utah's
economy -- 35th in size -- was producing jobs fast enough to rank the state 9th nationally. In December, 14 months
later, Utah lost 24,600 jobs.
Home sales in Salt Lake County peaked at 15,300 units in 2005. By the close of last year, sales had fallen 44
percent. Similarly, the annual change in the number of sales of homes and condos in 2007 and 2008 was the worst
in 40 years, Wood said.
"We are in the worst contraction, I'm quite confident, that we've had in 50 years in Utah."
Real estate agent Jorge Sanchez took Wood's tough message and made the best of it, but said 2009 will be a
challenging year.
Sanchez said calls from prospective buyers for homes are picking up.
But he isn't sure if the increase is because 1,500 agents have let their Board of Realtors membership lapse or
whether buyers are shopping for deals.
"If we haven't hit bottom, we are pretty close to the bottom," said Sanchez, a Sandy-based Re-Max agent.
Ginger Trask, a Realtor with Keller Williams Realty in Salt Lake City, said 2009 will be an opportunity to pick up
market share from other agents who have dropped out. The number of agents with active licenses has dropped
almost 20 percent in the past year, according to Board of Realtor figures.
"My mind-set is, the market is the market," Trask said. "There are still buyers out there and there are still sellers out
there."
By Paul Beebe
The Salt Lake Tribune
Salt Lake Tribune
Updated:02/02/2009 10:28:12 PM MST
Real estate transactions along the Wasatch Front this year will be little changed from 2008, when the lending crisis
slammed the economy and threw it into recession.
"We are going to slog along, and I hope we are establishing a trough of housing both for new starts, as well as the
existing home sales market," James Wood, director of the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business
Research, said Monday.
That was the best Woods could say to about 700 agents eating breakfast at the Salt Lake Board of Realtors' annual
economic forecast in Salt Lake City.
More sobering, when the upturn begins in 2010, agents -- as well people who buy, sell, build and service homes --
better not expect new construction and existing home sales to return to their 2005 peaks for a long time, Wood said.
"It might be a generation before we reach those levels again."
Ditto for the rapid escalation of home prices during the "golden age" of Utah real estate, which came to a screeching
halt last September, Wood said.
"That will probably be a little while before we see that again, another generation. That's how these things typically
run."
Wood peppered his outlook with reminders of how much the recession has hurt the state. In October 2007, Utah's
economy -- 35th in size -- was producing jobs fast enough to rank the state 9th nationally. In December, 14 months
later, Utah lost 24,600 jobs.
Home sales in Salt Lake County peaked at 15,300 units in 2005. By the close of last year, sales had fallen 44
percent. Similarly, the annual change in the number of sales of homes and condos in 2007 and 2008 was the worst
in 40 years, Wood said.
"We are in the worst contraction, I'm quite confident, that we've had in 50 years in Utah."
Real estate agent Jorge Sanchez took Wood's tough message and made the best of it, but said 2009 will be a
challenging year.
Sanchez said calls from prospective buyers for homes are picking up.
But he isn't sure if the increase is because 1,500 agents have let their Board of Realtors membership lapse or
whether buyers are shopping for deals.
"If we haven't hit bottom, we are pretty close to the bottom," said Sanchez, a Sandy-based Re-Max agent.
Ginger Trask, a Realtor with Keller Williams Realty in Salt Lake City, said 2009 will be an opportunity to pick up
market share from other agents who have dropped out. The number of agents with active licenses has dropped
almost 20 percent in the past year, according to Board of Realtor figures.
"My mind-set is, the market is the market," Trask said. "There are still buyers out there and there are still sellers out
there."
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