By Dawn House
The Salt Lake Tribune
Article Last Updated: 01/24/2008 06:57:00 AM MST
Neither the Utah nor the U.S. economies will tank, despite recession and housing market fears, economists for
Wells Fargo Bank said Wednesday in a forecast.
"It's been a difficult couple of days around the world," bank Executive Vice President Kelly Matthews said during a
presentation in Salt Lake City. "There's no doubt that we have a very difficult, worrisome situation facing us that
will probably last through most of this year."
Utah should be able to rely on steady job growth, which has slowed from 4.5 percent to 3.5 percent but is expected
to remain among the most robust in the nation. "It's much better than any other state, and we're a long way from a
negative situation," Matthews said.
It is hoped that strength will offset worrisome issues on the housing front, where Matthews is predicting a 7 percent
to 10 percent correction in residential prices in 2008. Even though mortgage interest rates are low, there is a
growing inventory of houses for sale that buyers increasingly cannot afford.
"There's going to take a certain level of price reduction to clear the market and get those homes sold," said
Matthews. "If people wait it out, it's more likely they'll have to lower prices in six months or a year anyway."
Even as Matthews was speaking Wednesday morning, Democratic and Republican leaders in Washington were
moving closer to a plan to jolt the U.S. economy out of its slump, including opening new financing windows for
some home loans.
Matthews predicted more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve, which on Tuesday cut the federal funds
rate from 4.25 percent down to 3.5 percent - the biggest reduction since 1990.
"The Federal Reserve acted appropriately. It has shown it's ready and able to provide liquidity. Now we need both
liquidity and consumer confidence."
Matthews and other Wells Fargo economists expect consumer spending - which accounts for about 70 percent of
the U.S. economy - to slow. Consumers are struggling with tighter lending standards, higher fuel costs and a drop
in housing-related wealth. But they can be partially shielded if wages and job growth remain healthy this year, they
said.
The U.S. economy is expected to grow 1.5 percent to 2 percent in 2008, in contrast to average annual growth of 3
percent. But the economists said a recession could be held at bay because softer consumer spending is likely to
be offset by strong growth in U.S. exports.
The U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak but not depreciate as much as it did last year, according to the bank's
forecast report. And inflation is likely to be around 3 percent this year because the linkage between rising oil
prices and inflation has loosened. In addition, energy efficiency has reduced consumption as a percentage of the
U.S. gross domestic product.
The bank's chief investment officer, Dean Junkans, said that although some sectors such as energy are
experiencing high prices, they are not indicative of an inflationary trend.
dawn@sltrib.com
The Salt Lake Tribune
Article Last Updated: 01/24/2008 06:57:00 AM MST
Neither the Utah nor the U.S. economies will tank, despite recession and housing market fears, economists for
Wells Fargo Bank said Wednesday in a forecast.
"It's been a difficult couple of days around the world," bank Executive Vice President Kelly Matthews said during a
presentation in Salt Lake City. "There's no doubt that we have a very difficult, worrisome situation facing us that
will probably last through most of this year."
Utah should be able to rely on steady job growth, which has slowed from 4.5 percent to 3.5 percent but is expected
to remain among the most robust in the nation. "It's much better than any other state, and we're a long way from a
negative situation," Matthews said.
It is hoped that strength will offset worrisome issues on the housing front, where Matthews is predicting a 7 percent
to 10 percent correction in residential prices in 2008. Even though mortgage interest rates are low, there is a
growing inventory of houses for sale that buyers increasingly cannot afford.
"There's going to take a certain level of price reduction to clear the market and get those homes sold," said
Matthews. "If people wait it out, it's more likely they'll have to lower prices in six months or a year anyway."
Even as Matthews was speaking Wednesday morning, Democratic and Republican leaders in Washington were
moving closer to a plan to jolt the U.S. economy out of its slump, including opening new financing windows for
some home loans.
Matthews predicted more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve, which on Tuesday cut the federal funds
rate from 4.25 percent down to 3.5 percent - the biggest reduction since 1990.
"The Federal Reserve acted appropriately. It has shown it's ready and able to provide liquidity. Now we need both
liquidity and consumer confidence."
Matthews and other Wells Fargo economists expect consumer spending - which accounts for about 70 percent of
the U.S. economy - to slow. Consumers are struggling with tighter lending standards, higher fuel costs and a drop
in housing-related wealth. But they can be partially shielded if wages and job growth remain healthy this year, they
said.
The U.S. economy is expected to grow 1.5 percent to 2 percent in 2008, in contrast to average annual growth of 3
percent. But the economists said a recession could be held at bay because softer consumer spending is likely to
be offset by strong growth in U.S. exports.
The U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak but not depreciate as much as it did last year, according to the bank's
forecast report. And inflation is likely to be around 3 percent this year because the linkage between rising oil
prices and inflation has loosened. In addition, energy efficiency has reduced consumption as a percentage of the
U.S. gross domestic product.
The bank's chief investment officer, Dean Junkans, said that although some sectors such as energy are
experiencing high prices, they are not indicative of an inflationary trend.
dawn@sltrib.com
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